After The Iran Strikes

Don't Let Iran Become Iraq 2.0

The US bombed a trio of Iranian nuclear facilities. Trump approved the strike.

One of the best arguments in favor of Trump is that he was against endless war in the Middle East. Indeed, he recently spoke of abandoning neoconservative orthodoxy and acknowledged the folly of nation-building at an event in Riyadh (see In Riyadh, President Trump Charts the Course for a Prosperous Future in the Middle East – The White House). By attacking Iran, he has greatly damaged his anti-neocon credibility and thus much of the support he has previously enjoyed.

I believe he still has an off-ramp and can still de-escalate, and do so in a way that will both preserve the anti-war majority of MAGA and his own ego (which plays far too much of a role in his political decisions, granted). The question is whether or not he will take it.

Let’s look at the basic reality: first, it is true that Iran should not have atomic weapons. That said, both the International Atomic Energy Agency and the US intelligence agencies have said they don’t believe Iran is developing such weapons. However, the IAEA has noted that Iran is in breach of the terms of the JCPOA (the “Iran Nuclear Deal”), and this is a cause for worry, but Trump made a catastrophic error when he withdrew the US from the JCPOA in his first term (he withdrew primarily due to the influence of arch-neocon Mike Pompeo – his secretary of State at the time – and devout Zionist Miriam Adelson).

Trump speaks regularly about how he resents when allies freeload on American defensive capabilities. He has made this critique of the Ukraine war, and even NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has repeatedly said Trump is right that there are delinquent NATO members. The simple reality is that this same critique applies to the Iran issue though – both Israel and the Saudi-led Sunni Bloc (and Israel is fairly characterized as a “silent ally” of the Sunni Bloc) want to see Iran taken out. In addition, powerful voices within the EU have spoken in favor of Israel’s current campaign against Iran – the most notable example is the Chancellor of Germany.

I don’t know if Trump’s actions thus far constitute an unconstitutional act. For the record, if they do, I would support immediately impeaching him even if I am terrified of having a Catholic Integralist like JD Vance as President. That said, Obama launched similar strikes during his administration and got away with calling them “kinetic military actions.” Consistent treatment is necessary here, as is Congress stepping up and passing Representative Thomas Massie’s bill on the issue of war powers.

Trump is noticeably transactional in his approach to international relations, and as such I find it hard to believe he’s going to take out Iran just because Germany (and presumably much of the EU), Israel and the Saudi-Sunni Bloc want him to do so. He doesn’t make donations. That said, I fail to see any US national interest being served by these strikes. One could cynically speculate he’s “returning the favor” for Qatar’s 747 as well as Dubai’s new Trump Tower. Alternatively, this could be in return for some national-interest-serving thing that I’m currently unaware of (I certainly hope it’s the latter).

I am deeply opposed to neoconservative foreign policy. I believe every State should act in the interest of its citizens, whereas neoconservatism commands the United States to sacrifice the interests of its own citizens on the altar of Israeli interests and defense contractors. And yes, Israel has the right to defend itself, but the current Prime Minister of Israel is clearly using wars to distract from very grave corruption charges, and the right of a State to defend itself is not an entitlement to other States’ assistance in doing so.

Trump is playing a very dangerous, high-stakes game here, and he’s wagered a massive amount of his own credibility and political support.

But there’s a way he can de-escalate and preserve his credibility and ego at the same time.

Here’s what he has to do: he needs to make it clear that the strikes were a response to Iran’s breach of the JCPOA, as identified by the International Atomic Energy Agency. In order to preserve his ego, he should throw Mike Pompeo under the bus, and make it clear that Pompeo (an arch-neocon and hence an enemy of America First foreign policy) manipulated him into withdrawing the USA from the JCPOA. Pompeo thus becomes another obstructive Deep State bureaucrat who sabotaged Trump’s agenda, and Trump retains his anti-neocon credentials and noninterventionist supporters. He should then make it clear – the US is happy to re-enter the JCPOA, and if Iran reaffirms its non-proliferation obligations, brings itself back into compliance with the JCPOA, and stops attacks on Israel, then Trump will demand Israel cease attacks on Iranian targets (under penalty of Trump completely withdrawing military aid to Israel should the Israelis continue bombing Iran).

Will Trump do this? I don’t know. His actions going forth will be very illustrative for Trumpology (i.e. the development of a consistent praxeology of Donald Trump). But what I proposed is what I believe he should do, should he truly want to back up his words in Riyadh and truly believe in a national-interest-driven (and, consequently, intervention-skeptical) foreign policy. My proposition also accounts for the unfortunate realities of Trump’s personality by only requiring him to concede what we already know – he was undermined regularly during his first term.

Before anyone accuses me of “supporting Iran” here, I would like to make it clear that as an atheist and a libertarian who supports equality of the sexes and for sexual minorities (and whom is often visibly sex-stereotype-defiant), I have nothing but hatred for the Ayatollah. But American lives do not exist for the sake of getting rid of every malevolent tyrant on the planet. The taxpayers and servicemembers of the USA are not sacrificial lambs for “spreading freedom.” Even if “spreading freedom” actually worked (and the monumental failures of nation-building, which Trump acknowledged, have made it very clear that it doesn’t), Americans don’t owe the lives of their children and the wealth of their treasury to such a cause. The only things that the American government owes to any other country are non-aggression and those diplomatic commitments it has voluntarily made.

Please, Donny, live up to your professed ideals and don’t let yourself get manipulated by neocons again. Put America first, give peace a chance, back up your Riyadh speech with action, listen to your supporters, and make a deal to stop this from becoming a war.